Study Links Global Warming to Some Extreme Weather Events
September 9, 2013
Human activities influenced at least some of the extreme weather events that occurred across the world in 2012, according to new research on the causes of 12 events that occurred on 5 continents and in the Arctic. The research, Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective, included 19 studies conducted by 78 scientists working in 11 countries. All of the events would have occurred even without rising global temperatures, with “natural weather and climate fluctuations” playing “a key role in the intensity and evolution” of the events, the scientists concluded. However, they also reported compelling evidence that human activity—particularly the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels—contributed to about half of the events.
Earth’s average surface temperature rose by about 1.4 Fahrenheit degrees (0.76 Celsius degree) from the mid-1800′s to the early 2000′s. Researchers have also found that most of the temperature increase occurred from the mid-1900′s to the 2000′s. Natural processes have caused Earth’s climate to change in the distant past. But scientists have found strong, clear evidence that human activities have caused most of the warming since the mid-1900′s.
A new reports suggests that coastal flooding from ocean storms will increase because of global warming. (AP/Wide World)
The difficulty in determining whether and to what degree human activities are influencing storms, heat waves, and other extreme weather events has made scientists cautious about linking global warming to any particular event. Recent advances in computer modeling and a greater understanding of climate data, however, have greatly improved scientists’ ability to distinguish natural weather factors from human-related factors. The new report has added to scientists’ understanding of the impact that climate change “adds, or doesn’t add, to any extreme event,” said Thomas R. Karl, director of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.
The scientists concluded that natural weather patterns were responsible for heavy rains that caused devastating floods in India, China, and Japan and for high summer rainfall in the United Kingdom in summer 2012. In addition, climate change only slightly influenced extreme rains in New Zealand in December 2011 and in Australia from October 2011 to March 2012.
In the United States, climate change had little effect on the drought that struck the midwestern United States in the summer, the scientists reported. However, human activities played a role in the accompanying heat waves that struck that region as well as the eastern United States. Temperatures during these hot spells are higher now than in the past and occur four times as often. The authors of the study also suggested that global warming will increasingly lead to more coastal flooding like that which occurred during Hurricane Sandy.
Some of the strongest evidence involved the record loss of sea ice in the Arctic. The scientists concluded that this loss resulted “primarily from the melting of younger, thin ice from a warmed atmosphere and ocean. This cannot be explained by natural variability alone.”
Additional World Book articles:
- The Great Meltdown (a special report)
- Methane (a special report)
- Meltdown: Climate Change in the Arctic (a special report)
- Probing the History of Climate Change (a special report)
- Twisted–More Terrible Storms (a special report)
- What We Know About Global Warming (a special report)
