May 4, 2016

Yesterday, May 3, Indiana citizens voted in one of the year’s later presidential primaries. The late date of the primary gave it a certain amount of weight, despite the relatively low number of delegates at stake. Presidential candidates have been rolling up delegates for months now, and Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump have established firm leads. Clinton lost to rival Bernie Sanders yesterday, but Sanders remains a long shot to overtake Clinton for the Democratic nomination. Trump’s campaign, however, took a huge leap in Indiana, where Hoosier Republicans handed him the primary on a platter. The results forced Republican Ted Cruz out of the race, all but guaranteeing Trump that party’s nomination.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz ended his presidential campaign on May 3, 2016.
Credit: Peter Stevens (licensed under CC BY 2.0)

Republican Ted Cruz, trailing Trump by about 500 delegates, put his last best effort into Indiana. He hoped his ultra-Conservative brand would inspire religious voters to lean his way. He hoped the “stop Trump” campaign would sway voters toward him as the only Trump alternative. He hoped his last-ditch swipes at Trump would teeter fence-sitting Republicans to fall his way. He hoped that the naming of Carly Fiorina as his prospective running mate might pull people to his side. Cruz may have convinced some undecided people to vote for him, but it was not enough, and his effort was in vain. A strong majority of Republican voters—some 54 percent—stuck with Trump, who won the state’s 57 delegates.

The Indiana victory gave Trump 1,053 delegates, just 184 short of the Republican nomination goal of 1,237. With Cruz’s numbers flagging in other states, particularly in delegate-rich California (among the final primaries on June 7), the reality of his campaign’s chances became impossible to ignore. Cruz just wasn’t going to catch up. As enough results came in to make the end clear, Cruz stood sorrowfully behind a microphone and told his supporters it was all over, that he was dropping out of the race. “Together we left it all on the field in Indiana,” he said. “We gave it everything we’ve got. But the voters chose another path.”

April 20, 2016

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won her party’s New York primary, edging closer to the nomination.
Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

Yesterday, April 19, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump padded their leads at the highly anticipated New York state presidential primaries. Clinton, who once represented New York in the U.S. Senate, collected 58 percent of the Democratic vote, winning easily over rival Bernie Sanders. Sanders, a Brooklyn native, had carried the last several but smaller state primaries, and had hoped for a better showing. Clinton’s New York win makes her the likely nominee at this July’s Democratic convention. Clinton added 139 New York delegates (out of 247), giving her a total of 1,930—including 502 superdelegates who have (so far) committed their votes to her campaign. Sanders has 1,189 delegates, 38 of which are “super.” Clinton needs just 453 more delegates to secure the minimum nomination total of 2,383.

Donald Trump easily won the Republican New York primary, adding to his lead over rival Ted Cruz.
Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

Trump, who grew up in New York City, took 61 percent of the Republican vote, adding 89 New York delegates to his lead. John Kasich earned 25 percent of the vote and 3 delegates. Ted Cruz took just 14 percent of the vote and zero delegates. Trump now has 845 out of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination. Cruz is in second place with 559.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island go to the primary polls next week.

April 6, 2015

Bernie Sanders
Credit: © Bernie 2016

Ted Cruz
Credit: Peter Stevens (licensed under CC BY 2.0)

Last night, Wisconsin’s primary elections brought good news for the two second-place candidates vying for their parties’ nominations. On the Republican side, Ted Cruz won with 48 percent of the vote, against Donald Trump‘s 35 percent and 14 percent for John Kasich. Cruz captured 36 of Wisconsin’s 42 delegates, while Donald Trump took the remaining 6. In Wisconsin, Cruz was favored by Republicans with more education and those centered around the Milwaukee area. Trump did better in the less-populated areas of Wisconsin’s north and west. Cruz was also helped by the endorsement of Wisconsin’s Republican governor, Scott Walker, and the support of a number of conservative talk-radio hosts. The running delegate count now looks like this: Trump  743, Cruz 517, and Kasich 143. The next Republican vote, in New York on April 19, has 95 Republican delegates. Trump is from New York City, so he is expected to do well in this primary.

Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders has won six of the last seven contests against Hillary Clinton: Idaho and Utah (on March 22); Alaska, Washington, and Hawaii (on March 26); and now Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton now has 1,279 pledged delegates (delegates chosen by voting), and Bernie Sanders has 1,027. The Democratic Party, however, also has superdelegates who vote independently. They include party leaders, Democratic governors, and Democratic senators and representatives. There are 718 Democratic superdelegates, of whom 469 are currently supporting Clinton and 31 are for Sanders. That makes Clinton’s total delegate lead 1,748 to 1,058—a steep hill to climb for Bernie Sanders.

Wyoming, with 9 Democratic delegates, holds its caucus on April 9. After that comes New York’s primary on April 19. (Republicans and Democrats do not always hold their votes on the same day, but they are aligned in New York.) This huge state has 247 Democratic delegates up for grabs. Although Clinton was born in Chicago, she represented New York in the Senate from 2000 to 2009. Sanders, a senator for Vermont, was born and raised in Brooklyn, a borough of New York City. In some sense, both candidates can be seen as native New Yorkers.

March 16, 2016

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton campaigns at Nelson-Mulligan Carpenters Training Center in St. Louis, Missouri, on March 12, 2016. Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

Yesterday, March 15, five large U.S. states held primaries to select nominees for the U.S. presidential election in November—Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders was unable to continue his run after last week’s surprise win in Michigan. Hillary Clinton won easily in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Illinois was something of a surprise in that it is Clinton’s home state, and many expected her to win easily. Instead, she squeaked by with 50.5 percent of the vote against Sanders’ 48.7 percent. No Democratic primary is winner take all, so Clinton took 68 Illinois delegates, while Sanders claimed 67. At the time of writing, Missouri was a virtual tie, with Clinton winning by some 1,500 votes and a recount underway in several precincts. Clinton, with these wins, has 1,599 delegates; she is now far ahead of Sanders, who has 844 delegates. At this point, it would be very difficult for Sanders to win the nomination.

Donald Trump campaigns at the Peabody Opera House in St. Louis on March 11, 2016. Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

On the Republican side, Donald Trump took three states outright—Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina. Florida was something of an upset. It is the home state of Senator Marco Rubio, and candidates usually win their home states. Trump took 45.7 percent of the votes in Florida against Rubio’s 27 percent, a final so disappointing for Rubio that he dropped out of the presidential race after the results were announced. Florida is an unusually important primary for Republicans. It is a winner take all state, so Trump grabbed all 99 Florida delegates. The Republican results for Missouri were still too close to call at the time of this posting. In Ohio, the state’s governor John Kasich stopped Trump, winning 46.8 percent of the vote against Trump’s 35.6 percent. Ohio is also a winner take all state, so Kasich received all 66 Ohio delegates. With three Republican candidates left in the race, Trump has 646 delegates, Senator Ted Cruz has 397, and Kasich has 142. To gain the Republican nomination outright, a candidate must have 1,237 delegates. If Trump cannot gain this (winning about 60 percent of the remaining delegates) over the coming weeks, the Republican party could head into a contested convention. In such a convention, delegates vote by ballot. On the first ballot, Trump would try to convince enough uncommitted delegates to vote for him that he would reach the magic number of 1,237. If the frontrunner cannot win on the first ballot, however, the convention becomes brokered. This mean that one half of the delegates are freed to vote for whomever they chose.

Currently, there is a rule that a candidate must have won a majority of the vote in at least eight states to be eligible to run as president. Should Republican officials turn to someone who has not been running—such as former nominee Mitt Romney—officials might try to change the eight-state rule.

Other Behind the headline articles

• Iowa Surprises Us All (February 2, 2016)
• Outsiders Rule in New Hampshire (February 10, 2016)
• Super Tuesday Favors Clinton and Trump (March 2, 2016)
• The 2016 Election Primaries and Caucuses After Super Tuesday (March 11, 2016)

February 24, 2016

Several primaries and caucuses have occurred over the last few days in the Democratic and Republican races for the U.S. presidential nomination.

On February 20, in Nevada, the Democrats held caucuses to select delegates for the Democratic Convention. The convention will be held July 25-28 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Nevada, Bernie Sanders exceeded expectations, but he was unable to win against Hillary Clinton. The final count was a vote of 52.6 percent and 20 delegates for Clinton and 47.3 percent and 15 delegates for Sanders. Sanders did better than had been expected with Hispanic American voters, gaining 53 percent of the tally against Clinton’s 45 percent. With African American voters, however, Clinton was strongly ahead. Nationally, 65 percent of African American voters favor Hillary Clinton and 22 percent favor Bernie Sanders. This will matter in the upcoming primary in South Carolina, a state with a large African American population.

A Democratic candidate needs 2,383 delegates to win the nomination. Currently, Clinton has 502 and Sanders 70. Clinton’s lead is built purely on superdelegates. Clinton and Sanders both have 51 delegates through voting, but Clinton has 451 superdelegates against Bernie Sanders’ 19. Superdelegates are people chosen by the Democratic Party who are automatically seated at the convention and may vote for whomever they choose.

Democrats and Republicans hold separate votes in Nevada and South Carolina. The Republicans held their South Carolina primary on February 20. Donald Trump won that primary with 32 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tied for second place, each with 22 percent of the vote. Jeb Bush ran a distant fourth, with 7.9 percent of the vote.

Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush speaks at a town hall meeting in Columbia, South Carolina, on February 18. His poor showing in the South Carolina primary two days later ended his campaign. Credit: © Shutterstock

After his poor showing in South Carolina, Bush suspended his campaign. His fourth place finish in South Carolina had followed a fourth place finish in New Hampshire and a sixth place finish in Iowa. When he joined the race in 2015, he had been seen as a favorite for the nomination. He is from a political family, and both his father, George H.W., and brother, George W., have been U.S. presidents. In addition, Jeb Bush had far more campaign money than any other candidate. The New York Times reported that Bush had spent $130 million on his campaign, a huge sum and more than twice the amount spent by any other Republican candidate. But, Bush was an establishment candidate in a year in which voters were looking for an outsider.

In the Republican caucus in Nevada on February 23, Donald Trump won resoundingly, with 45.9 percent of the vote and 14 delegates. Marco Rubio won second place, with 23.9 percent of the vote and 7 delegates. Ted Cruz came in third, with 21.4 percent and 6 delegates. Candidates John Kasich and Ben Carson each got fewer than 5 percent of the votes.

The Republican candidate needs 1,231 delegates to clinch the nomination. Currently, Donald Trump has 81 and both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have 17. The Republican Party has far fewer superdelegates, and they must vote as their state votes.

February 10, 2016

In New Hampshire on February 9, the first of many primary elections was held in the process that will eventually choose candidates for the 2016 U.S. presidential election. (A caucus was held in Iowa before New Hampshire’s vote, but by state law, New Hampshire is obligated to hold the nation’s first primary.)

Bernie Sanders (center)
Credit: © Bernie 2016

For the Democrats, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders registered a big win over his rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Sanders raked in 60 percent of the vote, earning an estimated 15 of the state’s 24 delegates. Sanders is considered an “outsider” for his staunchly progressive (favoring improvement and reform) views and for shunning corporate money for his campaign. Traditionally, Sanders has also been independent of party, although he has generally sided and caucused (met to discuss leadership or policy votes) with the Democrats. Clinton’s political history and collection of corporate donations has labeled her the establishment candidate, despite the fact that she is attempting to become the first woman president of the United States.

On the Republican side, New York businessman Donald Trump was the winner with 35 percent of the vote, earning an estimated 11 delegates. Ohio governor John Kasich came in a surprise second, with 16 percent and 4 delegates. Former governor Jeb Bush and senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio rounded out the field at about 11 percent, probably earning 3 delegates each. Trump has never held political office, so the primary result could be seen as a rebuke to the candidates of the Republican establishment.

Donald Trump
Credit: Marc Nozell (licensed under CC BY 2.0)

Both Sanders and Trump were seen as long-shot “outsiders” to win their party nominations when they first announced their campaigns. Both candidates, however, have gained tremendous momentum as they preach a shared disdain for the way things are run in Washington, D.C. That is where the comparisons end, however, as Sanders and Trump represent opposite ends of the political spectrum.

February 2, 2016

Last evening, February 1, the people of Iowa cast the first votes for presidential nominees for the 2016 election. By the end of the night, two candidates were in a heated tie for first place, two candidates suspended their campaign, and one candidate pulled off a surprise win against a favorite.

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (New York) was declared the winner over U.S Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont). The outcome, however, was a squeaker. With 99.9 percent of the votes in, Clinton won a delegate percentage of 49.82, against Sanders, with 49.61. In actuality, the race was so close that Clinton won by a coin toss. According to the Iowa Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton’s final delegate count was 699.57 and Sanders’ was 695.49. Hilary Clinton was awarded 22 delegates and Bernie Sanders 21 for the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Less than a month before the Iowa caucuses, Hillary Clinton makes a campaign stop in Ames, Iowa. Credit: Iprimages (licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0)

On the Republican side, real estate mogul Donald Trump was ahead in the polls going into the Iowa caucuses. On the final poll before the vote, 28 percent of likely voters backed Trump, 23 percent backed U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (Texas), and 15 percent liked U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (Florida). Political experts, however, had earlier stated that a win for Trump would be likelier with high voter turnout because his supporters were less politically involved than those of the other candidates. Last night, however, despite record-high turnout at the Republican caucuses, Ted Cruz was the winner with a delegate percentage of 27.65. Trump was next with 24.31 and Rubio followed with 23.1 percent. (These percentages will be used to apportion the state delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, in July. In actual delegates, Cruz won eight and Trump and Rubio won seven each. Physician Ben Carson won three, and Rand Paul and Jeb Bush gained one each.)

Ted Cruz campaigning in Iowa. Credit: Peter Stevens (licensed under CC BY 2.0)

Two candidates suspended their campaigns after disappointing results. On the Democratic side, former Maryland governor Martin O’ Malley dropped out of the race. For the Republicans, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee threw in the towel.

Iowa’s caucus system is an unusual one. Voters gather on the night of the caucus in such places as school classrooms and church basements. For Democrats, voters stand in different areas of a room to indicate what candidate they are supporting. Republicans caucus by ballot. A candidate must gain at least 15 percent of the total vote to be viable, which can lead to people at caucuses asking neighbors to join their side in order to keep their candidate viable, or to people with failing candidates moving within the room to support a new candidate. People may also decide to offer a speech on behalf of the candidate whom they support. Whereas casting a vote in a primary election usually takes only a few minutes, caucusing takes hours, and only committed voters tend to participate.

The Iowa caucus has very little predictive value for who will actually win the presidential nomination. Iowa is just not that much like the rest of the United States. Iowa is a small, rural state in a nation in which most voters live in urban areas of large states. Also, the people of Iowa are far more likely to be white and are, on average, much older than are people in the rest of the nation. This is also true of the next state in the 2016 primary process, New Hampshire, which holds its primary on February 9.

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