April 20, 2016

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won her party’s New York primary, edging closer to the nomination.
Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

Yesterday, April 19, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump padded their leads at the highly anticipated New York state presidential primaries. Clinton, who once represented New York in the U.S. Senate, collected 58 percent of the Democratic vote, winning easily over rival Bernie Sanders. Sanders, a Brooklyn native, had carried the last several but smaller state primaries, and had hoped for a better showing. Clinton’s New York win makes her the likely nominee at this July’s Democratic convention. Clinton added 139 New York delegates (out of 247), giving her a total of 1,930—including 502 superdelegates who have (so far) committed their votes to her campaign. Sanders has 1,189 delegates, 38 of which are “super.” Clinton needs just 453 more delegates to secure the minimum nomination total of 2,383.

Donald Trump easily won the Republican New York primary, adding to his lead over rival Ted Cruz.
Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

Trump, who grew up in New York City, took 61 percent of the Republican vote, adding 89 New York delegates to his lead. John Kasich earned 25 percent of the vote and 3 delegates. Ted Cruz took just 14 percent of the vote and zero delegates. Trump now has 845 out of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination. Cruz is in second place with 559.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island go to the primary polls next week.

March 16, 2016

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton campaigns at Nelson-Mulligan Carpenters Training Center in St. Louis, Missouri, on March 12, 2016. Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

Yesterday, March 15, five large U.S. states held primaries to select nominees for the U.S. presidential election in November—Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders was unable to continue his run after last week’s surprise win in Michigan. Hillary Clinton won easily in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Illinois was something of a surprise in that it is Clinton’s home state, and many expected her to win easily. Instead, she squeaked by with 50.5 percent of the vote against Sanders’ 48.7 percent. No Democratic primary is winner take all, so Clinton took 68 Illinois delegates, while Sanders claimed 67. At the time of writing, Missouri was a virtual tie, with Clinton winning by some 1,500 votes and a recount underway in several precincts. Clinton, with these wins, has 1,599 delegates; she is now far ahead of Sanders, who has 844 delegates. At this point, it would be very difficult for Sanders to win the nomination.

Donald Trump campaigns at the Peabody Opera House in St. Louis on March 11, 2016. Credit: © R. Gino Santa Maria, Shutterstock

On the Republican side, Donald Trump took three states outright—Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina. Florida was something of an upset. It is the home state of Senator Marco Rubio, and candidates usually win their home states. Trump took 45.7 percent of the votes in Florida against Rubio’s 27 percent, a final so disappointing for Rubio that he dropped out of the presidential race after the results were announced. Florida is an unusually important primary for Republicans. It is a winner take all state, so Trump grabbed all 99 Florida delegates. The Republican results for Missouri were still too close to call at the time of this posting. In Ohio, the state’s governor John Kasich stopped Trump, winning 46.8 percent of the vote against Trump’s 35.6 percent. Ohio is also a winner take all state, so Kasich received all 66 Ohio delegates. With three Republican candidates left in the race, Trump has 646 delegates, Senator Ted Cruz has 397, and Kasich has 142. To gain the Republican nomination outright, a candidate must have 1,237 delegates. If Trump cannot gain this (winning about 60 percent of the remaining delegates) over the coming weeks, the Republican party could head into a contested convention. In such a convention, delegates vote by ballot. On the first ballot, Trump would try to convince enough uncommitted delegates to vote for him that he would reach the magic number of 1,237. If the frontrunner cannot win on the first ballot, however, the convention becomes brokered. This mean that one half of the delegates are freed to vote for whomever they chose.

Currently, there is a rule that a candidate must have won a majority of the vote in at least eight states to be eligible to run as president. Should Republican officials turn to someone who has not been running—such as former nominee Mitt Romney—officials might try to change the eight-state rule.

Other Behind the headline articles

• Iowa Surprises Us All (February 2, 2016)
• Outsiders Rule in New Hampshire (February 10, 2016)
• Super Tuesday Favors Clinton and Trump (March 2, 2016)
• The 2016 Election Primaries and Caucuses After Super Tuesday (March 11, 2016)

March 2, 2016

Yesterday—Tuesday, March 1—was “Super Tuesday” in the United States. On that day, more states hold primaries and caucuses to choose delegates for the presidential nomination than on any other day. In 2016, 13 states held voting for the presidential nominee, but not all of them held a final vote selecting a winner.

The states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia held votes with results for both Republicans and Democrats. Alaska held voting only for the Republican nominee. Colorado and Wyoming held Republican caucuses but no final vote was taken for those caucuses; that vote comes later in the election cycle. The Democrats also held a vote in the territory of American Samoa and took ballots from expatriates (Americans living abroad) who consider themselves Democrats.

Super Tuesday was created in the late 1980′s to test political candidates and see how they and their campaigns would hold up under the strain of votes held in multiple states on the same day. When Super Tuesday was first instituted, early voting included only the Iowa caucus in January and the New Hampshire primary in March. The events are spread out and both are held in small, rural states that are not representative of the United States as a whole. Super Tuesday allows political parties to see how their candidate does organizing a campaign in many states on the same day, something that is closer to what happens in the nationwide presidential election in November. It also tests candidates in states that have more racially diverse and larger populations. For yesterday’s events, the winning candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and American Samoa. Bernie Sanders came out ahead in Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and his home state of Vermont. A Democratic candidate needs 2,383 delegates to win the presidential nomination. Yesterday, Clinton gained 486 pledged delegates and 101 unpledged delegates (superdelegates who back a candidate but may vote for whomever they choose at the convention) for a total of 587. Sanders gained 321 pledged and 7 unpledged for a total of 328 Super Tuesday delegates. These additions gave Clinton a total of 1,034 delegates for the voting season and Sanders 408.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump won Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. Ted Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma, and his home state of Texas. Marco Rubio won his first state, Minnesota. Lower-polling candidates John Kasich and Ben Carson won no states in the Super Tuesday race. Late on March 2, Ben Carson announced he was suspending his campaign, saying he saw “no political path forward” towards the presidential nomination.

All of the delegates for the Republicans are pledged delegates. On Super Tuesday, Trump gained 234 delegates, Cruz gained 209, and Rubio 90. These delegates gave Trump 316 delegates, Cruz 226, and Rubio 106. A Republican candidate needs 1,237 delegates to win the party’s nomination for president.

No candidate has clinched his or her party’s nomination, but Sanders, Cruz, or Rubio would have a difficult time at this point in overtaking the leaders in the race.