Trump and Clinton Increase Their Leads
March 16, 2016
Yesterday, March 15, five large U.S. states held primaries to select nominees for the U.S. presidential election in November—Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders was unable to continue his run after last week’s surprise win in Michigan. Hillary Clinton won easily in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Illinois was something of a surprise in that it is Clinton’s home state, and many expected her to win easily. Instead, she squeaked by with 50.5 percent of the vote against Sanders’ 48.7 percent. No Democratic primary is winner take all, so Clinton took 68 Illinois delegates, while Sanders claimed 67. At the time of writing, Missouri was a virtual tie, with Clinton winning by some 1,500 votes and a recount underway in several precincts. Clinton, with these wins, has 1,599 delegates; she is now far ahead of Sanders, who has 844 delegates. At this point, it would be very difficult for Sanders to win the nomination.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump took three states outright—Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina. Florida was something of an upset. It is the home state of Senator Marco Rubio, and candidates usually win their home states. Trump took 45.7 percent of the votes in Florida against Rubio’s 27 percent, a final so disappointing for Rubio that he dropped out of the presidential race after the results were announced. Florida is an unusually important primary for Republicans. It is a winner take all state, so Trump grabbed all 99 Florida delegates. The Republican results for Missouri were still too close to call at the time of this posting. In Ohio, the state’s governor John Kasich stopped Trump, winning 46.8 percent of the vote against Trump’s 35.6 percent. Ohio is also a winner take all state, so Kasich received all 66 Ohio delegates. With three Republican candidates left in the race, Trump has 646 delegates, Senator Ted Cruz has 397, and Kasich has 142. To gain the Republican nomination outright, a candidate must have 1,237 delegates. If Trump cannot gain this (winning about 60 percent of the remaining delegates) over the coming weeks, the Republican party could head into a contested convention. In such a convention, delegates vote by ballot. On the first ballot, Trump would try to convince enough uncommitted delegates to vote for him that he would reach the magic number of 1,237. If the frontrunner cannot win on the first ballot, however, the convention becomes brokered. This mean that one half of the delegates are freed to vote for whomever they chose.
Currently, there is a rule that a candidate must have won a majority of the vote in at least eight states to be eligible to run as president. Should Republican officials turn to someone who has not been running—such as former nominee Mitt Romney—officials might try to change the eight-state rule.
Other Behind the headline articles
- Iowa Surprises Us All (February 2, 2016)
- Outsiders Rule in New Hampshire (February 10, 2016)
- Super Tuesday Favors Clinton and Trump (March 2, 2016)
- The 2016 Election Primaries and Caucuses After Super Tuesday (March 11, 2016)